Time to take stock

Year 2006 is on its last legs. In another fort-night, year 2007 will be upon
us. So, it's the right time to take stock of 2006 and see how we fared
overall. In the first issue of January 2006, in these very columns I had stuck
my neck out by giving you my predictions for the year. I am happy to state that
yours truly has been bang on target in about two-thirds of the predictions made.

My first prediction was-mergers and acquisitions amongst the distributors
would gain momentum. While a lot of heat and noise was generated in some cases,
nothing concrete happened. So, here I faltered. However, I am pretty sure that
it is only a matter of time before this area sees a flurry of activity.

Asim Raina Editor

The second prediction I made-the importance and clout of regional
distributors will go up considerably-turned out to be quite correct as this
trend was clearly visible during the year. And I expect this to gain further
momentum in the next year.

Channel partners will diversify their business-this was my third
prediction. Here I hit the bull's eye as we have a number of cases where it
has happened. The most interesting part is that in most of the cases the
diversification has been outside the infotech arena. For instance, JK Baid of
Kolkata-based Eastern IT Group has got into the jute business and Rakesh Totlani
of Jaipur-based Vishnu Computer Land has almost abandoned his IT business by
getting into the share market. In addition, there are a lot of cases of partners
who have entered the telecom reselling business, a trend that is likely to
continue.

My fourth prediction-incidents of fraud cases will rise exponentially-is
another one bang on target. As business growth continues on the upward curve,
fraud cases are also keeping pace with that. For instance, in the last four
months or so, there have been three cases of fraud that have come to light in
Chennai alone. Besides, there have been a number of theft cases being recorded
all over the country-the latest being that at the premises of Park Electronik
in Noida.

Another prediction, which makes me feel quite proud, is the fact that the
share of PC assemblers has continued to be steady, contrary to various reports
being dished out by market research agencies. Though the assemblers' share is
not going up, it is not coming down either.

My last prediction-Delhi will have a mega IT show-turned out to be a
complete dud. Nothing of that sort happened. The reasons are many but that's
the subject I would rather take up some other time.

All in all, the year ends on quite a satisfying note for me. I hope it does
for our readers also. And may the positive trend continue in the new year too.
With best wishes for the New Year.